Sample C: Triple Zen Draft 1st pick review

So this one really gets my goat. This is the kind of pack i would really struggle with picking correctly based on value in THIS format.

Luminarch Ascension
Inferno Trap
Quest for Pureflame
Quest for the Gravelord
Joraga Bard
Umara Raptor
Goblin Shortcutter
Spire Barrage
Magma Rift
Makindi Shiledmate
Reckless Scholar
Grazing Gladehart
Steppe Lynx
Lethargy Trap
Mountain

So Ant already pointed out why maybe the Luminarch isnt the first pick in his recent draft deck thread.
Q Gravelord is a giant bad ass. The Raptor is great. Lynx early and with landfall can be deadly.
Magma Rift kills like 80% of the creatures in this format but doesnt seem like a first pick.

Is there an autopick here?
Am i not considering the best 3 or 4 cards?

I think you're overvaluing the Raptor, which can be great in multiples or in a dedicated ally deck, but otherwise is outtempoed by Welkin Tern.

I like Inferno Trap and the Gladehart here. I'd probably go with the trap, as removal is awesome.

I'd go for the Ascension, it's just a massive bomb, and you don't need to make white your main color to play it. If you are going main white though I'd pick it heavily in the following packs to avoid sending bad signals.

Every magic player that I know that is better than me says that black and red are the best colors in zen draft, with black being slightly better. That said, I believe that the pick comes down to either Steppe lynx or Quest for the Gravelord. This is a really hard pick for me. The lynx is slightly more powerful, but in a weaker color combo, and the gravelord is in the best color but a little worse. I think that both these cards are top 5 cards for their colors. Your choice here is based on if you like white or black more, who is sitting around you, and what you think is over and underdrafted.